Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
